Gao Jifan: Energy storage battery technology restricts solar energy development

Compared with Shi Zhengrong, the chairman of Suntech Power, Gao Jifan, Chairman of Trina Solar, and the company he founded in one hand have a low profile. At the end of 2010, sales of Changzhou Trina Solar Energy Co., Ltd. exceeded 10 billion yuan. However, as European countries gradually lowered the subsidies for their policies, the photovoltaic market in 2011 was generally seen as declining.

After experiencing rapid growth, the photovoltaic industry will enter the second stage in the next 10 years, and the growth rate will not soar, but will become more rational. However, Gao Jifan did not show much concern. "Last year, TRW sold 1.06 GW in the global market, and this year it is expected to sell 1.75-1.8 GW of components."

Reporter: Italy has just approved a new solar subsidy bill. Like Other European countries, it is gradually lowering the subsidy policy. How do you think about the future development of the photovoltaic market?

Gao Jifan: It should be said that the entire industry is still growing. The size of the world in 2000 was no more than 200 megawatts. By 2010, it was about 15-18 GW. It has grown 100 times in ten years. In the next decade, the percentage of growth will be greatly reduced, but the increase will increase. In my opinion, the growth rate in 2011-2015 will be 20%-30%, and the growth rate in 2015-2020 will be only 10%. It is expected that the global installed capacity will reach 100GW in 2020.

The photovoltaic industry is still in a period of growth. There is no doubt about this. However, the gradual decrease in the growth rate is a trend, but there may be some fluctuations in each year. But this is not entirely due to the decline in subsidies. Take Germany as an example. After the FIT (Solar Power Generation on-grid tariff subsidy policy) in 2004, the subsidy fell every year. This is an inevitable trend. If it does not decline, the industry’s contribution to society will not be discussed. In the long run, the cost of photovoltaic power generation should reach the user-side parity power first, and then realize the parity power generation side.

Reporter: This year the market can no longer continue the hot last year, the pressure of TRW is also great, right?

Gao Jifan: In 2011, the global PV market has a large difference in the forecasted high installed capacity, but I don't think it will have much impact on TRW. With photovoltaic components as the core product, companies can be divided into one or two or three teams.

The first echelon includes several Chinese suppliers, as well as companies in Japan, Europe, and the United States, whose sales account for 40%-50% of the global market. The remaining two or three tier companies account for more than 50%.

In general, an echelon of companies is recognized by banks, and the customer groups are all large-scale energy and power companies or long-term investors. Their demand will not change significantly due to policy adjustments. Within the customer base, there are indeed a group of opportunistic investors who are committed to high-level policy subsidies. However, the companies that match them are generally two or three teams.

Reporter: What are your expectations for the development of the Chinese market this year? How is Trina Solar's development plan for the Chinese market this year?

Gao Jifan: 2009 is the first year for the Chinese market to start. The original government hoped to lay the foundation for three years, and policies, standards, and approvals could be put together. This year is the third year.

In the past few years, China’s installed capacity has doubled, but its past base has been small. I think that under the opportunity of the 12th Five-Year Plan to use new energy as a strategic emerging industry, during the three years from 2012 to 2014, the Chinese market will have even greater development. In the future, China and the United States should become the two largest markets for the new energy industry.

We will continue to promote the Chinese market as always. Last year, including sales in the domestic market, and our own system integration is probably more than 30 megawatts, accounting for about 7% of the Chinese market share.

We will plan to obtain our own market share, but we will not blindly participate in projects with a certain degree of vicious price competition. Instead, we will choose projects with reasonable investment returns to develop the domestic market. We have never taken the lead of scale as a goal, but instead pursued core competitiveness. Scale is only an inevitable result.

Reporter: What are the challenges that the solar industry may face in addition to policy changes?

Gao Jifan: The challenge for the future is that if the energy storage battery technology cannot keep up, the development of solar energy will be restricted.

Nowadays, solar energy is only an important part of energy. Only with the development of energy storage technologies, especially the development of large-scale energy storage technologies, solar energy may become a major part of energy.

The development of the photovoltaic industry is actually creating value for humanity through technological innovation. It is suggested that the government should vigorously cultivate competitive and well-known enterprises in the industry, such as Japan's leading companies in the home appliance industry in the 1970s, and leading companies in the semiconductor industry like Korea. The PV industry must be such a position to be proud of China's industry.