The news of mobile 4G trial commercial spread, a friend called: With 4G, can I cut the fixed network? This is indeed a problem, because from various propaganda reports, Hangzhou TDD-LTE maximum rate of up to 100Mbps, far higher than the existing broadband rate, but to answer this question, we must first look at a few data.
The 4G rate is high, which is uncontroversial, but it is much higher, depending on the data. In the current report on Hangzhou's TDD-LTE network, many media have mentioned that "from the perspective of the measured speed, the download speed can exceed 100Mbps, which is several times the current 3G Internet speed." 100Mbps is the theoretical rate of 4G. It needs a good signal. It is possible to share all the resources in a sector by one user. In reality, the mobile signal is composed of dozens or even hundreds of users. Sharing, the so-called "measured" can not be tested in the actual environment. Let's take a look at the measured rate of foreign 4G operators. Telstra's 4G network has an average speed of 12.5 Mbps (2,188 test times); Optus has an average speed of 13.6 Mbps (test times of 110) and varies slightly depending on its geographic location. 40% of the tests achieved a speed of no less than 5Mbps. 70% of the tests achieved a speed of no less than 10 Mbps - about a quarter of Telstra's highest speed.
Looking at the technology, Telstra uses FDD-LTE technology. This technology is characterized by the fact that in the case of single carrier, the uplink and downlink bandwidth can reach 20MHz. The commercial trial in Hangzhou is TDD-LTE independently developed by China. Up to 20MHz, which means that when the number of users increases, the actual usage rate of the latter will be affected more than the former. China Mobile has the world's largest mobile network, with nearly 700 million users. The network can withstand pressure. Compared with Australia, which is sparsely populated, the actual rate is not optimistic.
In addition, the continuity of mobile networks has always been a big problem, even in the 4G era. As early as 2010, US mobile operators Sprint and Verizon launched a 4G network, and the media measured the comparison between the two and the fixed network. The conclusion is that 4G is not too worried for simple tasks such as sending emails and surfing the Internet. If you need to watch mobile video and play online games, it is a bad idea to cut the DSL cable. Of course, with the optimization of 4G networks, the current speed and stability must be higher than at the beginning, but supporting high-definition video directly on the TV like wired broadband, it is difficult to achieve the same user experience.
The biggest problem lies in the construction of base stations. 4G is a new technology. In order to guarantee the speed, the density requirement for base station construction is very high. The data obtained from a wireless expert is 400 meters (or even less) in dense urban area, that is, every 400. M, you have to build a base station. Seeing this, everyone who understands understands that this means that 4G is difficult to achieve seamless coverage like 2G or 3G, because it is too difficult to build a base station this year. Since 2008, this newspaper has continued to pay attention to the difficulty of establishing a mobile base station. The annual rent of a base station of 100,000 yuan is by no means an isolated case. Whether it is the residents’ fear of radiation or the price of some properties for rent, build a base station. The time and effort spent are on the rise. Take Shanghai as an example. According to preliminary estimates, the LTE base station required for 4G full coverage is about 6000-8000. This figure is not an easy task for the three major operators. It is conceivable that even if 4G is licensed, the three major operators must follow the 4G and 3G dual-network parallelism. In this case, the demand for high bandwidth for home and business users is difficult to meet.
Of course, 4G wants to replace the fixed network, but also have to ask the fixed network to answer. In the two rumors in 2013, the introduction of the broadband China strategy was more reliable than the 4G licensing. China Mobile and the legendary national radio and television won the fixed-line license, and there is not much difficulty. The four operators are now advancing fiber-optic networks with speeds of 100 Mbps and even Gigabits, and the difference between the actual rate and the highest rate claimed by operators is much lower than 4G. For a long time, mobile technology has struggled to surpass fixed networks in the experience of high-bandwidth applications.
From an investment point of view, China Telecom and China Unicom have invested tens of billions in fiber-optic broadband. 3G has just seen a profit turning point this year. It is unlikely that it will give up heavy gold to 4G, and it is even less likely to encourage 4G to replace fixed-line. A subtle psychology will definitely affect the final 4G tariff development and marketing strategy. The only variable is naturally China Mobile. If this year's national broadband strategy and 4G licensing are carried out at the same time, the two-line operation is also worth considering for the rich economy.
Written here, someone has to say, you are singing 4G. Wrong, on the 4G, I absolutely agree with both hands, China too needs to catch up with the world in the era of the fourth generation of mobile communications, not to repeat the dilemma of 3G behind the decade, but it is not necessary. Numerous cases have proved that in China, what is worth waiting for is a good thing. For 4G, we are still patient.
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