What China needs is a forward-looking LCD panel investment
The highlights of China â€™s color TV market in 2009 were the LED TV, Internet TV, high-definition digital terrestrial machine, and the flat-panel TV market that rose against the trend and has gradually shaken off the impact of the global financial crisis on the entire color TV industry in China. From a market perspective, the flat-panel TV industry continues to upgrade, and consumer market demand has risen significantly.
With the increase in production and sales of flat-panel TVs, it has also driven the development of the entire flat-panel TV panel enterprise. According to experts from the Consumer Electronics Survey Office of the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce, the demand for LCD TV panels in mainland China was 20 million in 2009, increased to 28 million in 2010, and will reach 35 million in 2011. Flat-panel color TV companies in mainland China will consume a lot of LCD panels. At present, the foreign-funded brand LG has announced the establishment of its own LGDisplayCHINA panel production plant in Guangzhou. Samsung and Sharp also intend to open their own panel production plants in China to compete for market share in China's panel manufacturing industry. Panel giants such as Taiwan's Chimei, AU Optronics, and Beijing's BOE are also staged a high-generation investment competition. In addition to Changhong, which invested early in plasma panels in domestic color TV companies, Konka and Hisense also established their own LCD module factories in Kunshan and Qingdao, respectively. TCL, Skyworth and other companies have also successively launched their own investment panel manufacturing plans. The era of the panel manufacturing market has arrived. China's high-generation LCD panel line project will come to an end in two to three years after the launch of China's high-generation LCD panel line, and it will even further form a large-scale industry in mainland China, South Korea, Japan and Taiwan in the panel industry. New pattern.
The bumpy road for Chinese companies to "make a screen"
Panel production is the upstream link of the flat-panel TV industry, the foundation of the entire flat-panel TV industry, and an industry with high technical requirements and large investment scale. LCD TV technology changes rapidly. Once LCD TV products are slow to sell, it will lead to a large supply of LCD panels. The impact of high imported material costs is more obvious, so the more production, the greater the loss. As early as 2003, SVA invested huge amounts of money to introduce the fifth generation line. "The first domestic LCD panel production line" was the determination and hope of the transformation and upgrading of radio and television in the past, throwing out the outdated CRT pure flat panel, and fully launching the 5th generation line of TFT-LCD liquid crystal panel. This action was generally praised by the industry at that time. Who would have imagined that the upgrade brought about a loss higher than a year. Finally, in the rumors that Shanghai Radio and Television upgraded the TFT production line last year, the annual loss has reached an astonishing point of billions of RMB. The Changhong PDP project was jointly invested by Sichuan Changhong Electric Co., Ltd., Sichuan Century Shuanghong, and the US MP Company. On April 28, 2007, the construction of the Changhong PDP project started. This is China's first PDP module mass production line with independent intellectual property rights and core technology. It is expected that after the project is completed, it can achieve annual sales income of 5.63 billion yuan and annual profit and tax of 1.6 billion yuan. However, due to technology and downstream machine production Changhong is also in a dilemma for the problem of enterprise convergence. The key reason for the plight of Changhong â€™s PDP project was the sudden fall of Shanghai Broadcasting and Television Corporation. The key reason is that our LCD panel companies lack core competitiveness and are always slow in the face of brutal global competition. How to absorb the experience of Shanghai Radio and Television and Changhong, and how to avoid repeating the same mistakes, will be a severe test for domestic panel production enterprises that have already launched.
Industry development has weaknesses in the future panel market will exceed supply
Since the first half of this year, with the gradual increase in sales of flat-panel TVs, domestic manufacturers began to significantly increase the number of LCD panel orders in August and September. The demand for panels has grown rapidly, leading to the increase in LCD panel prices. LG, Samsung, Sharp Waiting for Japanese and South Korean manufacturers and LCD panel makers in Taiwan, China to bring huge profits, which also led the panel manufacturers to focus on China. As a result, various panel manufacturers have turned to cooperative production and construction of factories in China, and domestic color TV companies have also launched new competitions for panel manufacturing projects. According to statistics from the Consumer Electronics Survey Office of the China Electronics Chamber of Commerce, the demand for LCD TVs in mainland China will reach 50 million units in 2013, accounting for 25% of global market demand. To seize the Chinese mainland market is to seize the commanding heights of the global LCD TV market. Since late August, many domestic cities have reported that they plan to invest in the construction of the 8th generation LCD panel production line. South Korea's LG LCD screen project with a total investment of 4 billion US dollars has settled in the Guangzhou Development Zone. LG has previously built a LCD module production base in Guangzhou. On September 26, Sharp â€™s Nanjing LCD Valley project started construction of the 6th generation line, and Samsung and Chimei also reported that they are cooperating to build factories in China. All the investment will exceed hundreds of billions. The hidden worry of oversupply in the panel market in the future has already emerged, and the decline in the price of LCD panels is inevitable.
Domestic color TV companies, in addition to Changhong, Hisense, Konka have established their own panel module factory, TCL also reported on November 16 this month that it will raise 5 billion yuan to cooperate with Shenzhen Super Company to establish an 8.5 generation panel in Shenzhen News from the production line. In order to avoid the investment risks of LCD panels, color TV companies such as Skyworth and Tsinghua Tongfang are also considering investing in the production of panels in the form of shares.
By 2012, global sales of LCD TVs will reach 188 million units, and the scale of LCD TVs in mainland China is 45 million units. If all are calculated according to 32 inches, three 8-generation lines can meet this demand; Inch, 42 inches, and 55 inches each account for 1/3 of the shipments, and only six 8-generation lines are required. As of now, the mainland has announced that it has already built 7 production lines of 7.5 generations and above. With the gradual commissioning of these panel production lines, the supply-demand balance of the flat-panel TV panel market will encounter major challenges. What is more serious is that when Chinese companies and local governments at all levels are doing special work for the 6th, 8th and 8.5th generation LCD panels, the 10th generation line represented by Sharp has been mass-produced, which means that The technology of these production lines that have not yet been put into operation in China has fallen behind the "two and a half generations" of Japanese and Korean companies. The key to the future lies in finding new application areas, where the most competitive manufacturers can win.
Technology becomes the key to the future development of domestic panel companies
The rapid development of China's flat-panel TV industry has greatly improved the current situation that the entire industry is concentrated in downstream machine manufacturing, the upstream panel industry is small in scale, and its competitiveness is weak, which is conducive to the improvement of China's flat-panel TV industry layout. But while developing the panel industry, there are still some problems that need to be treated calmly.
Domestic color TV and color TV upstream companies have successively invested in the construction of LCD panel projects. In the future, it is expected to break the situation where the upstream resources of the flat-screen TV industry chain are controlled by a few companies in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. The localization of the TV industry chain has driven the independent innovation and localization of flat-panel TV panel manufacturing equipment. However, the high-generation line currently put into production will only be mass-produced in 2012 at the earliest, and not to mention that the higher-generation LCD panel production line will appear and become the mainstream after 3 years. LEDs, OLEDs, and even new panel displays such as rollable screens Technology will pose a threat to the panel production line currently in production. If the production of flat-panel TVs encounters technological and industrial changes in 3 years, how to deal with huge investment and production capacity is the most important issue facing the domestic panel industry. Whether it is LCD, LED, or OLED, its core technology is in the hands of manufacturers in the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and the domestic high-generation line only has production capacity.
At this stage, there is still a big gap between the core technology research of China's color TV industry and the international leading level. The upsurge in the development of the panel industry, whether it is a technical issue or an overcapacity issue, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwanese companies are actively entering the mainland of China to establish panel production lines. The main reason is that China has huge flat-panel TV terminals Demand market, this is our advantage. For domestic manufacturers that invest in LCD panels, it is necessary to seize the domestic terminal market, grasp the market trend, and extend the product life cycle to greatly increase profits. At the same time, the domestic upstream panel industry can gather To greatly improve the bargaining power of enterprises, all domestic companies have done is not to waste the two weapons of price and resources.
Lu Jianbo, a well-known home appliance expert, said that some foreign-funded enterprises have begun to shift the focus of the panel industry development to China, and the global flat-panel TV industry has shown a trend of shifting to China. Under the effect of scale effect, panel prices will be lowered. Two years later, when mass production of high-generation lines established by huge investment in mainland China may also encounter the risk of a sharp decline in global panel market prices. In this wave of development of the flat-panel TV panel industry, improving core technology research, enhancing independent research and development capabilities, and grasping core technology are key issues. The government strengthens planning management, guides the rational layout of the industry, and avoids blind investment and low-level repeated construction. Clarify industrial development goals and development directions, and achieve coordinated industrial development.
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