Gu Neng: Next year, semiconductor output grew by 4.6%.

In 2010, semiconductor industry revenue will exceed the US$300 billion mark for the first time, and next year it is expected to grow by another 4.6%, and memory will be the only sector that will predict a recession next year. In addition, the price of wafers has been revised since the third quarter of this year, causing the growth rate of semiconductor revenue in the fourth quarter of this year to be the first negative growth in six quarters.

Gartner said that the global semiconductor industry revenue has grown steadily by 31.5% this year and is expected to exceed the $300 billion mark for the first time, becoming the most harvesting year in the history of the semiconductor industry. In 2011, the market will continue to grow, although the growth rate will slow down. The overall revenue forecast is up to US$314 billion, an increase of 4.6% from the value of US$300.3 billion at the beginning of 2010.

However, Gartner also pointed out that wafer prices have been slightly revised since the third quarter of this year, and it is expected that the situation will continue for the next year. Bryan Lewis, vice president of Gartner, said that semiconductor revenue has been lower than the seasonal norm for the third consecutive quarter, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter may not be able to meet expectations, and will even have the first negative growth in six quarters. Because the semiconductor manufacturing industry can use more than the mid-year peak, the wafer lead time and average selling price then began to decline. The third quarter of 2010 was a turning point. The strong Christmas holiday sales are critical to maintaining a modest wafer price correction in 2011.

Gartner said that this year's memory is the sector with the strongest growth in the overall semiconductor market, and its revenue growth is 49.8%. However, the memory market is also the only sector forecast to decline in 2011, and its revenue will decrease by 2.4%. DRAM revenue is expected to decline by 15.6% in 2011, mainly due to weaker-than-expected PC demand and DRAM price decline. As a NAND flash memory device for many popular consumer electronic devices, revenue is expected to grow by 24%.

From an application point of view, smart phones, mobile computers, and tablet media will drive the growth of semiconductors until 2014. The iPad's best-selling iPad will enable the rapid growth of flat-panel media. This market is expected to continue to grow despite fierce competition from various brands. Gartner predicts that the semiconductor industry’s revenue from flat media will increase from US$2.4 billion in 2010 to US$17.8 billion in 2014.

In the PC market, the average consumer's purchase of the PC is lower than expected, and the company's sales to the PC replacement cycle are also weak. However, slowing consumer and commercial PC sales have been offset by stronger-than-expected flat-panel media sales. The revenue generated by PCs for semiconductors is estimated to be US$64 billion in 2010, a 34.8% increase over 2009. In 2011, the revenue of semiconductors in PCs, the assessment will be reduced by 3.2 percentage points to 62 billion US dollars. The 2011 recession was due to the drop in DRAM prices. Other semiconductor components such as CPUs will grow.

The outlook for mobile phone production has improved. Overall, semiconductor revenue on mobile phones steadily increased to $48.7 billion in 2010, a 23.2% increase over 2009. In 2011, global semiconductor sales on mobile phones are estimated to reach 55.4 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 13.6% over 2010.