Luminous efficiency and cost-effectiveness continue to improve the prospects for LED lighting applications
In the entire LED market, the proportion of LED lighting is not high, but it is the fastest growing segment of LED applications. In the past, LED lighting was mainly used in special applications such as building wall washers, decorative lights and bicycle brake lights, but With the improvement of LED luminous efficiency and the continuous decline of cost, it has been gradually applied to the field of indoor lighting and street lighting in advanced countries in recent years. In the future, with the further improvement of cost efficiency, it is expected to occupy an important market in the market with a market scale of more than 100 billion US dollars. status.
High-brightness LED market development will focus on LED display, backlight and lighting
The LED market can be divided into high-brightness LEDs and general LED markets. Among them, high-brightness LEDs account for nearly 80% of the total LED market, as demand growth comes from high-brightness applications. In the past, the proportion of high-brightness LED applications has been dominated by the backlight used in the screen buttons of mobile phones, but as the mobile phone market has slowed down, and too many manufacturers have entered this one.笫 Only the ED market will gradually decline, and its share of the high-brightness LED market will also fall from 45% in 2007 to 25% in 2011.
Emerging growth areas include LED displays, LED backlights for TV/NB and LED lighting. It is expected that in 2011, the proportion of high-brightness LEDs in the overall LED market will increase from 7% in 2007 to 13% in 2011, In 2011, the LED market for lighting will reach more than $1 billion.
LED display backlighting and LED lighting will be the most growth projects for high-brightness LEDs
Note: The display includes LED billboards and LED backlights for displays such as NB, Monitor and TV.
Large-scale LED lighting market is suitable for cutting into the main cause of power saving and long life
The global lighting market has exceeded $110 billion in 2008. Although the overall market has reached maturity, the annual growth rate is only between 3 and 5%. However, because it is a must for life and urban construction, it can ensure stable demand. If LEDs can enter this market, whether it is a Lamps or Fixtures, future business opportunities cannot be ignored.
The lighting market has a characteristic that the main cost in the life cycle of a street lamp or a household light bulb comes from electricity and maintenance costs (such as the cost of attendance of American workers repairing street lamps is as high as 80 to 100 US dollars per hour). As long as LED can overcome the problem of high price, its power saving and long life characteristics will be very beneficial for LEDs to be used in this market.
Like the semiconductor industry's decades of observing Moore's Law, the LED industry also has its Moore's Law, the Haitz law proposed by Roland Haitz, which is an inductive analysis. Since 1965, the output of LED lighting has increased every 20 years. Times, while the unit cost of LED components is reduced by 90%.
At present, the progress of LED products in lighting applications, even slightly surpassing the prediction of Haitz's law, the industry also predicts that the medium and long-term development in 2007~2016 will continue to grow close to this law. As long as LED products can maintain this trend in terms of efficiency and cost reduction, the LED industry will continue to grow.
If the US Department of Energy (DOE) forecasts 2007 and 2010 commercial LED light source and lighting technology standards, it is expected that in 2010, in the warm light (w arm) white LED light source luminous efficiency and total lighting efficiency of the lamps LED lights are at least multiplied, so it is expected that LED lights will be more energy efficient (due to higher luminous efficiency) and lower cost, and cold light LED lights and lamps will have the same progress.
The medium and long-term favorable factors for the development of the LED lighting market are mainly due to its compliance with environmental protection and energy saving trends and the significant improvement in LED luminous efficiency and cost reduction. The progress of Haitz's law will continue until 2016. Lighting accounts for 8% of total US energy consumption and 22% of US electricity consumption (other countries have a lower proportion, but the global average is about 20%). In the United States alone, the annual energy is the energy needed for lighting. The cost is more than $45 billion, so major developed countries will encourage energy-efficient technology applications.
LED indoor lighting prices are still high
At present, the problem of LED popularization in indoor lighting is mainly in the price side. Compared with traditional incandescent lamps or energy-saving bulbs, LED lamps have lower power consumption, but the unit price is still high, with LED lights 5 Estimated by the service life of the year, although the average service life of the energy-saving bulbs is only 30 weeks, it needs to be replaced several times, but the overall cost (light bulb + electricity bill) is still higher (about 40% more), so the cost of LED bulbs continues. Lowering is only beneficial for general households to convert energy-saving bulbs to LED lights.
Incandescent bulbs will be eliminated due to environmental and power consumption problems, so it is not enough to block the popularity of LED lighting in home lighting.
LEDs are also used in retail and office/factory lighting
In indoor lighting applications, LEDs are mainly used in retail display (Retail Display) related purposes, because LED lights can display special lighting effects required for cosmetics, jewelry, etc., and consumers do not feel the divergence using LED lights, so near In the past three years, the average annual growth rate of this application has exceeded 70%.
In addition, in convenience chain stores such as supermarkets, LEDs are more efficient at low temperatures, so the benefits of LEDs can be seen in the application of light sources in supermarket refrigerators. After all, household lighting only uses 4 hours a day, and street lights only turn on lights for 10 hours a day. However, the LED lights in the freezer in the supermarket may use 16 hours or even 24 hours, and the power saving effect of LED lights will be more effective.
LEDs can be more effective in lighting applications in the retail industry
At the end of October 2008, Sharp announced that its three major developments in the future are LCD + solar cells + LEDs. The focus of LEDs is on LED lighting. The main focus of LED development in Taiwan panel manufacturers is different in LED backlighting.
Sharp's LED lighting and Pan ason ic and other Japanese factories focus on home lighting, the company will focus on outdoor LED street lights, LED + solar composite street lights and office / factory LED lighting.
LED lighting long-term prospects will be challenged by competitive technology OLED
Although LED lighting is promising, the US Energy Agency's research concluded that it will be challenged by competitive technology OLEDs in the medium and long term. In terms of the speed of technological progress, there is little difference between the two parties. Only LED leads the commercialization, so the product specifications are 3 to 5 years ahead, but experts also predict that OLED lighting will be applied at least in low-end products such as street lamps around 2020. In the field of high color-Rendering Index (CRI), the cost per lumen of watts per watt will be similar.
LED lighting application development direction
LED lighting applications used to focus on architectural landscapes such as Path Light, Floodlight, Step lights, and balcony lights, accounting for about 43% of the overall LED lighting market in 2008, but this The growth of a field has been slow. In the future, the emerging growth areas, outdoor applications are LED street lights, and its growth potential cannot be ignored, because the number of global street lighting devices has reached 180 million, and China, the United States and other countries are actively adopting this. Type street light.
Indoor applications are the fastest growing in retail display lighting, and the growth rate will remain above 50% in the next three years. As for the most anticipated home lighting, the average daily usage time of household lighting is about 4.3 hours. The benefits of power saving characteristics are limited due to insufficient use time. Only LED bulbs/lights can be expected to increase their luminous efficiency and guide the bulbs. The cost of lighting can be rapidly reduced to reach the average family.
Conclusion
To ask when the LED photo is coming in the era of 17e? In fact, LED lighting has already been applied by people, such as wall washers, flashlights, LED reading lights, miners' lamps, etc. in various commercial buildings, and the future will increase with luminous efficiency and cost. It will be extended to streetlights, commercial retail applications and general home lighting.
In terms of growth rate, the high growth areas of LED lighting in the next three years will be residential lighting, retail display, outdoor lighting, off-grid lighting, and architectural lighting. The main reason is that the output value of the first two emerging applications is still low, so The average growth rate in the next three years can reach 40~50%, but the market size of LED residential 1dba lighting and outdoor lighting in 2008 is still less than 15 million US dollars, so the scale must reach the point of time enough to affect the LED industry. It is expected that after 2011, when the luminous efficiency is more attractive, the steps to adopt a gradual development of the market should be the correct development mentality.
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