[Predicted] LED lamp illumination costs will drop by 30-40% in 2011

Today's lighting market is dominated by LED, energy saving and emission reduction has become the slogan of many industries. The difference between the LED illumination cost and the fluorescent lamp is already within 5 times. The cost per watt is still 10 times that of commonly used high-efficiency light sources such as fluorescent lamps. However, due to the unidirectional light source characteristics of LEDs, detailed product design, and high-efficiency drive circuits, the illuminance cost is within 5 times. The illuminance corresponds to the number of lumens in a specific area and is an indicator that users really care about. The significance of the difference between the cost per watt and the cost of illumination is that the LED lamp will have a power saving effect of about 50% compared to a fluorescent lamp or the like.

At present, cool white LED lamps have been economical in the field of non-residential lighting. Taking into account the power-saving effect of the calculation shows that LED lights can use about 10,000 hours to recover the cost, and the product life has actually exceeded this level significantly. In order to consider the impact of time value, we use a discount rate of 20%. We still find that the current price, 10 hours/day, and 250 days/year have positive economic value. This will include most non-residential lighting applications.

There is still huge room for cost reduction, including improvement of light efficiency, scale effect, and reasonable return of industrial profits. The drop in chip prices has already begun. By the end of 2011, the cost of LED illumination will be 30-40% lower than the current level. We believe that this price will start after the application of warm white light or 4-6 hours/day. This includes most non-residential lighting applications. And home lighting will also start in 2012.

November LED lighting demonstration application project will change the user's understanding of the product characteristics of LED, the pre-standard non-standard market competition and use experience make it difficult for users to recognize LED's long life of 20,000 hours. The finalists in the demonstration application project include Zhejiang Sunshine (35.80, -0.46, -1.27%) and NVC Lighting.

Massive LED market, LED lighting involves chips, packaging, thermal materials, light guide antireflective materials, drivers and other different fields. About 20% of global electricity consumption is lighting, LED lighting will save more than half of the electricity consumption, which is the potential market capacity of LED.

The chip field focuses on Silan Micro (23.32, -0.06, -0.26%) and Great Wall Development (12.74, -0.11, -0.86%). Although the price of short-term LED lighting chips is falling, the lighting demand will eventually improve the supply and demand pattern. Silan microdisplay chips are less affected by falling prices, and their blue-green chips are among the best in the country; Great Wall Development boasts large-scale manufacturing management capabilities and is expected to be a leading integrated upstream and downstream manufacturer under the support of wafers and billion light. .

The backend packaging and application is more worthy of attention in 2011, because the chip supply chain, including chip prices, will drop lighting application expectations; LED lighting chips currently only account for about 15% of the entire lamp price, a huge value-added products. It is in the latter stage of manufacturing and channel links; unlike previous Chinese companies in the TV backlighting market, it is difficult to cut in. Global lighting manufacturing capacity has been concentrated in China, and Chinese companies will certainly become the dominant force. Focus on China Star Optoelectronics (42.00, 1.39, 3.42%), Zhejiang Sunshine, focusing on Fujing Technology (18.44.58, 3.25%).

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