Six emerging areas are expected to drive lithium demand

Future communications base stations, energy storage, electronic cigarettes, smart wearables, lithium-powered bicycles, and electric vehicles are expected to boost the demand for more than several billion yuan in the lithium power industry. In the long run, lithium-powered bicycles and electric vehicles are expected to drive a significant increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries.

Through the understanding of associations, industry experts and people in the industry, in the promising market for communication base stations, energy storage, lithium-powered bicycles, and electric vehicles, the demand for lithium electricity in 2012 has been driven by more than 4 billion yuan. In 2015, it is expected to drive demand growth by nearly 30 billion yuan. yuan.

According to the data from the Institute of Lithium Industry (GBII), the lithium battery market in 2012 was 64 billion yuan, up 14.3% year-on-year. It is expected that the output value of lithium batteries in China will increase 15% year-on-year to 74 billion yuan in 2013. This means that the emerging field has a significant role in the pull of lithium batteries.

Liu Yanlong, secretary-general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, said that the field of backup power supplies for communications base stations will be another new application for lithium-ion batteries.

“At present, the company is doing some lithium manganese battery research and applying it to energy storage. The prospects in this field are also very good,” said Sun Huiying, deputy general manager of Qingdao Ganyun Gaoke New Materials Co., Ltd.

Guo Yi, the deputy general manager of Shenzhen Chuangming Battery Technology Co., Ltd., said that he is very optimistic about the application of lithium batteries in the field of energy storage. He said that the company's lithium batteries are developing rapidly in the field of energy storage.

For the field of electric vehicles, a professional fund investor disclosed to reporters that the current lithium battery field for electric vehicles still can not see the prospect of an explosion in the short term, and the current concern is the application of lithium batteries in the field of power tools and energy storage. .

For e-cigarettes, smart wearable products, google glasses and other new areas, the technical and security requirements are relatively high. Only when they do well can they enter these fields, which will lead to a smaller demand for lithium.

Communication base According to the real lithium research, the mobile base station consumes about 58,000 kWh of lithium battery in 2012. The speed of replacing the lead-acid battery with lithium-ion battery is gradually accelerating. Given the vigorous development of 3G and 4G networks, China Mobile's base station power supply market is expected. The demand for lithium-ion batteries will reach 154,400 kWh in 2013 and 4,369,900 kWh in 2015.

According to industry experts, in the field of energy storage, the gap between lithium-ion price and lead-acid is gradually narrowing, and the price is about 0.8-0.9 yuan/Wh. Based on the average price, the consumption of lithium battery in the field of communication base stations is 49.3 million yuan in 2015. It is expected to reach 3.7 billion yuan.

Listed companies that are involved in communications power related businesses in the domestic A-share market include: KSTAR, Kehua Hengsheng and Zhongheng Electric.

Energy storage According to the real lithium research, China will consume about 80,000 kWh of lithium batteries in wind power generation and energy storage in 2012. It is expected to achieve a 100% growth of 160,000 kWh in 2013 and 640,000 kWh in 2015.

According to the initial calculation of lithium battery price in the energy storage area of ​​approximately RMB 0.8-0.9/Wh, the lithium battery consumption for wind power generation in 2012 will be RMB 68 million, and it is expected to reach RMB 540 million in 2015.

At present, the listed companies involved in lithium-ion storage-related businesses in China mainly include BYD, Nandu Power Supply, Keliyuan, Foshan Lighting, Shenzhen Huicheng, Chengfei Integration, Haili De, and power sources.

Liu Yanlong, a lithium-powered bicycle, said that in 2012, China had 1.5 million lithium-ion battery electric bicycles. It is estimated that the number of lithium-ion battery electric bicycles in China will exceed 2.5 million by 2013.

According to the Great Intelligence News Agency, the unit price of a battery pack in a lithium-powered bicycle is about 1,000 yuan. If the sales volume of lithium-ion bicycles reaches 2.5 million in 2013, it will create a market demand of 2.5 billion yuan for lithium battery, which is about 1.675 million units in 2012. The output value of about 1.7 billion yuan, an increase of about 47.06%.

Domestic A-share companies involved in lithium bicycle batteries are: Desai battery, billion latitude lithium energy, new cosmopolitan, Qifeng Lithium, Zhong Road shares, South are power, Aucma, Kane shares.

Li Keke, a power lithium battery for automobiles, said that the domestic new energy automobile market will start to exert force after 2014, and will roughly maintain the growth rate of doubling each year, which is basically synchronized with the global. In 2012, China's electric vehicles drove a lithium-ion battery consumption of approximately 420,100 kWh. It is expected that by 2015, the scale of lithium-ion batteries for the electric vehicle market will increase to more than 5,685,200 kWh.

According to a person who has been engaged in battery business in Shandong for a long time, the lithium battery price is currently at 2.6 yuan/wh-2.8 yuan/wh. Based on this standard, it is estimated that in 2012, the scale of lithium-ion batteries consumed by China's electric vehicles will be approximately 1.134 billion yuan, and by 2015 it is expected to reach 15.35 billion yuan.

At present, the main companies involved in the field of power lithium batteries are: BYD, China Aviation Lithium Electric Holdings Chengfei integration, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Zhongju Battery (0, Wanxiang Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., South are power, the National Energy Battery.

The domestic market of e-cigarettes in the e-cigarette market is relatively small. 90% of e-cigarettes are sold abroad, and the major market is in the United States. In 2013, the size of U.S. e-cigarette market was approximately US$1 billion. Goldman Sachs expects US e-cigarette sales to reach the next few years. 100 billion U.S. dollars.

Lithium battery cells are one of the key components of electronic cigarettes. At present, the listed companies involved in electronic cigarette related businesses in China are mainly Yiwei Lithium Energy. Its semi-annual report shows that the electronic cigarette battery has a gross margin of 23.05%, and the lithium battery business revenue in the first half of the year is 1.74. Billion yuan, Lithium batteries for electronic cigarettes account for a relatively small portion of the total business.

Smart Wear According to the latest statistics from BergInsight, global shipments of smart wearable devices reached 8.3 million units in 2012. It is predicted that by 2017, shipments of wearable electronic devices will exceed 64 million units.