Large OLED panel costs hard to reduce penetration rate still has obstacles
In 2017, the large panel market saw a modest growth of just 6% compared to 2016, according to WitsView's analysis from Jibang Technology. Although three new production lines from CLP Group were expected to come online in the second half of the year, their full impact on production capacity was anticipated to be felt only after 2018. This projected growth is expected to reach 10%, marking the strongest increase since 2013. Among the key drivers, large OLED panels have drawn significant attention, but due to slow cost reductions, they are unlikely to become mainstream anytime soon.
According to Qiu Yubin, vice president of research at WitsView’s Optoelectronics Division, the demand for panels in 2017 showed mixed trends. Both TV and monitor shipments declined from 2016, with TV shipments growing by only 3% and display shipments dropping by about 2%. However, notebook PCs and tablet PCs saw positive growth, rising by 4% and 7% respectively. Despite the overall decline in TV and monitor shipments, the average size of panels being shipped increased by approximately 0.9%, with larger sizes like 23-inch and 23.8-inch becoming more common.
Looking ahead, Qiu predicts that TV and monitor shipments will rise in 2018, while the previously strong performance of notebooks and tablets may slow down. According to Jibang Technology data, TV panel shipments are expected to grow by 4.6% in 2018, and display shipments by 1.3%. Meanwhile, notebook and tablet PC shipments could decline by 2.6% and 3.5% respectively.
Qiu also noted that 2017 was a strong year for OLED TV panels. While high-end LCD products faced limitations in price competitiveness, their growth did not meet expectations, despite Samsung's leadership in Quantum Dot TVs. The expansion of the OLED market has been further supported by Sony (SONY), a leading brand in Europe, America, and Asia. Sony has managed to capture 20% of the OLED TV panel market, helping boost the technology’s reputation and pricing power.
However, the current complex manufacturing process for OLED panels means that costs are unlikely to drop significantly in the near future. New technologies are expected to address this issue, but mass production is not expected until the first half of 2019. Even though OLED TV panel shipments rose in 2017, their overall market share remains small. Qiu concludes that while high-end LCDs do not currently threaten OLEDs, significant growth in OLED shipments is still unlikely in 2018.
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